🔗 Share this article

Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Authorities and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative public vote.

"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."

Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.

"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, noted the journalist.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, assembling economic and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.

Arguments cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.

"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.

Possibility of Referendum

The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win on this issue and the other side will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to gain from the opposing positions."

Request for Wider Discussion

Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."